May 3, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 3 12:40:18 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060503 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060503 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060503 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060503 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 031237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN
   PLNS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE MID
   MS/LWR TN VLYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEVERE WEATHER SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S...CHARACTERIZED BY AN
   ABUNDANCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY BUT WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
   MODEST DEEP SHEAR...WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CNTRL STATES AGAIN
   TODAY. MORNING VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW MODERATE WLY FLOW FROM THE
   CNTRL RCKYS TO THE MID MS VLY ON SRN SIDE OF PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW
   OVER SRN MANITOBA.  THIS FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM...SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAK
   IMPULSE OVER WRN NM.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN THE
   GUIDANCE BUT EXTRAPOLATION ADVANCES IT TO THE SRN HI PLNS BY MID
   AFTERNOON.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SYSTEM SHOULD 
   CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY...AND S ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLNS.  ALONG WITH THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND DEVELOPING
   WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL MO INTO NE AR...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE A
   FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
   
   ...SRN PLNS...
   A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000 J PER
   KG/ WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND W
   CNTRL TX NEWD INTO MUCH OF OK. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL
   CONTINUING IMPRINT OF YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD STORMS...WITH DEWPOINTS
   REDUCED BY APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES FROM AREAS UNAFFECTED BY
   CONVECTION FARTHER S/E.  MODERATE /20-25 KT/ SLY LLJ AND DAYTIME
   HEATING SHOULD...HOWEVER...ALLOW CONSIDERABLE RECOVERY TO OCCUR S OF
   KS COLD FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.
   
   SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ALONG LEE
   TROUGH/DRY LINE IN W TX...AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE SRN
   PANHANDLE INTO OK/SE KS.  THIS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
   INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES BY
   MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY APPROACH OF
   NM SHORTWAVE.
   
   MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN MODEST /25 KTS/...BUT ENOUGH
   TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AND OTHER SUSTAINED STORM TYPES WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM-INDUCED BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
   /MANY STORMS...SLOW MOVEMENT/...POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A
   COUPLE TORNADOES.
   
   GIVEN EXPECTED WIND/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE STORMS SHOULD
   FAIRLY QUICKLY MERGE INTO SEVERAL LARGE E/SE-MOVING CLUSTERS.  THESE
   LIKELY WILL REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ DIURNALLY
   VEERS AND STRENGTHENS. THE SETUP MAY ALSO PROMOTE
   BACK-BUILDING/REGENERATIVE ACTIVITY SWWD ACROSS SRN OK/NW TX THROUGH
   EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ...MO/IL INTO LWR TN VLY...
   ON-GOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FROM CNTRL KS INTO SRN IA...NRN/ERN MO
   AND NE AR COMPLICATE TODAY'S SEVERE FORECAST FOR AREA AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT CROSSING THE MID MS VLY. CLOUDS AND RAIN FALLING INTO
   RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE AIR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING NW/SE WARM FRONT IN
   MO SHOULD TEMPORARILY OFFSET NEWD DESTABILIZATION INTO IL ASSOCIATED
   WITH 30 KT SWLY LLJ.  SW OF THE WARM FRONT...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST
   THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OK MCS WILL HAVE LARGELY
   DISSIPATED/MOVED OUT OF CNTRL/SRN MO BY ONSET OF HEATING TODAY. 
   THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND STORM
   REDEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SRN HALF
   OF MO BY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SEWD ALONG
   WARM FRONT INTO NE AR/WRN TN.  SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT OVER
   CNTRL/SRN IL...AND ALONG WARM FRONT IN WRN KY.
   
   GIVEN 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE...30-35 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORM CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN MO THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND INTO WRN/SRN IL THIS EVENING.  MAIN SEVERE THREATS
   SHOULD BE HAIL/HIGH WIND.  GIVEN A DISCRETE STORM...LOW LEVEL
   VEERING PROFILE AND RESPECTABLE MOISTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO
   OR TWO ALONG WARM FRONT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 05/03/2006
   
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