Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 100607
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN KY...WRN AND MIDDLE
   TN...ERN AR...NERN LA...MUCH OF MS...AND NRN AND WRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST STATES SWD
   ACROSS THE OH/TN /MS VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS/OK/TX AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MO/AR THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
   FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER TROUGH DIGGING SWD
   INTO THE PLAINS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS
   FORECAST ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION -- WITHIN LARGE
   TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ERN
   WI SWD ACROSS IL...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS SERN MO/NWRN AR AND INTO NRN
   AND WRN TX.  A LOW FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NERN TX AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO THE MID MS/LOWER
   OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN TN/NWRN MS/LA AND INTO THE TX COASTAL
   REGION.  OVERNIGHT...THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NWD
   INTO NRN INDIANA/LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH COLD FRONT
   ARCING SEWD ACROSS OH...SWD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THEN
   SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST REGION...
   VERY COMPLEX BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS
   ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE RISK AREA COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO.  DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA -- I.E. ACROSS
   THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION -- IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS A RESULT
   OF THE ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.
   
   FROM A LARGE-SCALE PERSPECTIVE...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH --
   ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG /70 TO 90 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- WILL
   SPREAD EWD ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.  WARM
   SECTOR AIRMASS FEATURING LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS N OF THE TN VALLEY
   AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BE IN PLACE
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- THOUGH AGAIN...THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
   FROM THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS NWD REMAINS IN QUESTION. 
   NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
   SPREADING ACROSS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICIANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.  
   
   AS FRONT MOVES EWD...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS.  NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
   SHOULD OCCUR SWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS LA AND INTO ERN/SERN TX.  STRONG
   WIND FIELD WILL YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL
   STORMS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.  FURTHER
   N...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY AS UPPER SYSTEM AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STRENGTHEN.  STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP NWD
   ALONG FRONT ACROSS IL INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH LESS
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A LESS
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.
   
   GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   OUTLOOK -- ...EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  GREATEST
   TORNADO THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
   STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
   MS AND INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR NWD INTO THE OH
   VALLEY...THREAT MAY EXTEND FURTHER N THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT...CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
   MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD
   NOT EXTEND E OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LIMITED THREAT MAY SPREAD
   EWD ACROSS GA...AND POSSIBLY INTO SC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/10/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z