Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 102001
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY FROM NERN LA...OVER SCNTRL MS AND SWRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX GULF COAST ACROSS
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO LOWER MI...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION NOW
   UNFOLDING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
   ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MIDWEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EVENING.
   
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   AND 70KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD VERY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL
   PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
   SWINGS EWD/NEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
   OCCUR ALONG A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM LAKE MI SWD
   TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
   RAPIDLY TONIGHT WHILE TRACKING INTO SRN LOWER MI. THE COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE ESEWD ACROSS THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ...LA...SRN MS/AL...WRN FL PNHDL...
   OUTFLOW FROM A PAIR OF MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CROSSING
   NRN MS/AL HAS STRONGLY REINFORCED FRONTAL ZONE/WARM FRONT SITUATED
   FROM NERN LA EWD TO SWRN AL. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING
   EAST AND INTERSECTS THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN
   LA. AIR MASS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME
   EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE
   AROUND 3000 J/KG. MESOSCALE FORCING/ASCENT NEAR THE FRONTS...IN
   COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE FASTER
   MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH THIS
   CONVECTION...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM
   DISCRETE CELLS TRACKING NEAR/ALONG THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY
   FROM ERN LA ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND INTO SWRN AL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.
   
   ...TX GULF COAST...
   COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO STRONG TO EXTREME
   INSTABILITY ALONG THE TX COAST FROM BRO THROUGH HOU. ALTHOUGH LACK
   OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRONG CAP MAY INHIBIT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SWD/SWWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT...
   LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
   THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVEN INTO DEEP SOUTH TX...THROUGH THE
   EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/ORGANIZATION.
   
   ...NERN AR/SERN MO NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO LOWER MI...
   VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN STRONGLY HINDERED BY THE
   PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF STORM COMPLEXES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WEAK
   AIR MASS RECOVERY WAS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS AR/SERN MO AND GRADUAL
   DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POCKET OF WEAK
   INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS NRN IL/IND AND INTO LOWER MI WHERE
   MARGINAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE AROUND 500
   J/KG. TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS STRENGTHENING
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO ACT ON THE MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   
   STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSIFYING
   MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ENHANCED LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH NEAR THE DEEPENING SURFACE
   LOW COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES IF
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP TO MAINTAIN MODEST TO STRONG
   STORM UPDRAFTS. AREAS FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... NWD INTO
   LOWER MI...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR STORM EVOLUTION
   THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENTLY...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
   UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AIR MASS RECOVERY SUGGEST MAINTAINING
   RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER THE REGION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/10/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z