SPC AC 151954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...
...FL/SRN GA...
PAIR OF ACTIVE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS CONTINUES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER FL. SRN MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE GENERATED
ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER SERN FL WHERE STRONG HEATING AND
ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THIS AREA AS SSWLY SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN FEED OF WARM/HUMID AIR OFF
THE SRN FL COAST AND OVER SWRN FL. WITH POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND INVOF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING DESPITE THE EARLY START TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SERN FL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELLS. OVER NRN FL...STORMS APPEAR TO BE TIED TO FRONTAL
CIRCULATION NEAR COLD FRONT SAGGING SSEWD INTO SRN GA/FL BIG BEND
REGION. THOUGH MLCAPES ARE WEAKER THAN OVER SRN FL...STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL COMPENSATE AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM OVER FL.
...ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUING EWD INTO CENTRAL NC/SC. E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED ONGOING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN NC...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIFTING
SLOWLY NWD/ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING APPROACHING
80F IS MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN NC WHERE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50+ KT FROM SFC-6 KM/ WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET. COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONGER
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION.
MOST FOCUSED REGION APPEARS TO EXTEND NEARER E-W FRONT INTO NERN NC
AND FAR SERN VA THROUGH THE EVENING.
...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITING MLCAPE...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONGER CORES MOVING SSEWD OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
HAIL...THOUGH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING.
..EVANS.. 05/15/2006
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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