May 30, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 30 12:46:11 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060530 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060530 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060530 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060530 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 301242
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. ALONG 114W.  LAST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
   MINOR SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE OVER NRN UT THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
   LIFTING NEWD TODAY.  MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THIS HAPPENS TROUGH
   WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS ERN U.S. RIDGE HOLD ITS POSITION OVER
   THE ERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS BECOME A STATE OF DISARRAY THANKS
   TO THE NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM
   WI THROUGH IA/MO INTO KS...OK AND WEST TEXAS.  WHAT IS LEFT OF A
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD INTO SERN MN
   BEFORE THE PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA INTO NERN
   KS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX.
   
   ...PARTS OF ERN WI SWWD INTO ERN KS...
   
   WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AND ITS REDEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
   PLAINS EWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS REMAIN POTENTIALLY
   VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 J/KG. THUS...AS
   DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AIR MASS AND NEAR AREAS CLOSE
   TO THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  SOME LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST
   WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS...
   
   DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND WRN U.S. TROUGHING...SURFACE
   WINDS ARE SELY FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
   PLAINS THIS MORNING AIDING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS LEAD TO
   CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN CO AND WRN KS.  AGAIN THE BOUNDARIES
   FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL PLAY ROLE IN INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION
   THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET COUPLES WITH MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  SLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL EXTEND THRU THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING WAA/LIFT NEAR THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE
   E-W ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  IN ADDITION...NAM MODELS
   DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF
   RELAXING WRN U.S. TROUGH.  CONTINUED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY
   ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
   DEVELOPMENT OF MCS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/SWRN KS INTO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES AND
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THE DEVELOPING
   STORMS...CLUSTERING INTO THE MCS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
   
   SECOND IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES HAS TURNED ANTICYCLONICALLY
   AROUND RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS
   BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY
   OVERNIGHT.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POISED OVER SERN ONTARIO/SWRN
   QUEBEC AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH NERN NY STATE INTO NEW
   HAMPSHIRE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ONCE
   AGAIN PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   06Z RUN OF THE NAM DEPICTED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OF E TO W
   MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
   TOWARDS AREAS FROM TPA SWD THRU FMY AND SRQ THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
   THAT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM BEFORE THE
   BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AREA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2006
   
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