SPC AC 021629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES WITH EXTENSION INTO THE NRN HI
PLNS WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY N AND E THIS PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
NOW OVER THE MID/LWR MS VLY AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES E TO THE
CNTRL/SRN APLCNS. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF VANCOUVER
IS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE PAC
NW/NRN RCKYS.
AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR WILL EXPAND DEEPER INTO THE
CNTRL STATES AS FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED OVER THE TN VLY/MID ATLANTIC STATES.
...ID/MT...
SWLY UPR FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF ID AND WRN/CNTRL MT LATER
TODAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WRN ORE CONTINUES NEWD.
HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
STRENGTHENS. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR 35-40 KT SWLY CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH
WIND/SEVERE HAIL.
...TN VLY TO MID ATLANTIC CST...
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG ACROSS BROAD WARM
SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE TN VLY/SERN U.S. TO THE DELMARVA REGION
TODAY. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST...LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH MOIST/WEAKLY SHEARED LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION INTO NE/SW BANDS.
GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF FLOW AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /REF MCD #1048/.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING PATTERNS SUGGEST SEVERAL AREAS OF
POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY INCLUDING /1/ MIDDLE TN VLY
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.../2/ THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS AND
...A BIT LATER TODAY... /3/ ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W
CNTRL VA TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
...WI...
WATER VAPOR/VWP WINDS SHOW A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEEPENING SEWD ACROSS
WI THIS MORNING IN NRN PART OF MS VLY TROUGH. WITH LOW LEVEL
FORCING REMAINING QUITE WEAK...EXPECT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FACTOR GOVERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7C/KM AND
500 MB TEMPS LESS THAN -15C WILL BOOST MUCAPE TO 500-1000
J/KG...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
WEAK SHEAR/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP INDIVIDUAL
STORMS/CLUSTERS SHORT-LIVED.
...ERN MOGOLLON RIM/SRN RCKYS TO CNTRL HI PLNS...
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
LIKELY TO SUPPORT DIURNAL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS FROM ERN AZ/NM INTO
PARTS OF CO....WHERE INVERTED VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT DRY MICROBURSTS. IN NE CO...MODEST DEEP NWLY SHEAR AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S/
MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS. BUT RIDGINESS ALOFT
AND MODEST WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STRENGTH/DURATION OF
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.
..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 06/02/2006
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