SPC AC 110555
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES....
AS A JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG AROUND THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL GRADUALLY FOLLOW
SUITE...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG TOWARD NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
...INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF
THE OZARKS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INITIATION OF STORMS IS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...BUT
FORCING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FARTHER NORTH/WEST...WHILE ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
...ANOTHER TROUGH IS ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST RIDGE. MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH
UPPER FEATURE COULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
...OZARKS INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
BROADLY CYCLONIC 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE. CONVECTION COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF A STABILIZING
INFLUENCE THIS WILL HAVE LATER IN THE DAY.
STRONG HEATING APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND FORCING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES COULD AIDE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE INTO COASTAL AREAS BY THE MID EVENING HOURS.
...ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND THREAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
SHEAR PROFILES...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SHOULD EXIST IN MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME
RELATIVELY NUMEROUS ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ACCOMPANYING A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTING OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH TOWARD CREST OF BUILDING CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE.
...FLORIDA...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BETTER POTENTIAL SHOULD AWAIT APPROACH OF
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..KERR/JEWELL.. 06/11/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
|
