SPC AC 090049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT TUE AUG 08 2006
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE TO THE NRN
ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...ERN MT/SWRN ND TO WRN/CENTRAL SD AND NRN NEB...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING AND NEW
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL PARTS OF SD NWWD TO ERN MT/WRN ND.
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...THUS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
...NRN ROCKIES SWWD TO ERN ORE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CENTERED OVER SERN ORE...WILL PROGRESS ENEWD
INTO ID OVERNIGHT...WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM ERN ORE INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL RESULT IN BOTH
MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM MODES THIS EVENING...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVORING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN ORE BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
...CAROLINAS TO NERN GULF COAST STATES...
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
ALSO FROM SRN AL/SWRN GA TO THE NERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO
INCREASING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MOIST AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS...WHILE GENERALLY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE THE HAIL
POTENTIAL.
..PETERS.. 08/09/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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