SPC AC 181959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NEB EWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY...
...ERN KS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN MO INTO CENTRAL IL...
AXIS OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM
ERN KS EWD INTO CENTRAL IL...ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WSWLY FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION
WITH TIME...AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX CROSSING NWRN MO.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND THREAT. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO IL AS LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME GIVEN
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
...SERN NEB/NRN KS/WRN IA...
AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM NRN KS NEWD INTO WRN IA...AHEAD OF
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ARC-SHAPED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CROSSING THE
MID MO VALLEY ATTM. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF ONGOING STORMS AND PRESENCE OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL SUGGEST THAT
HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...SRN INDIANA/SWRN OH/KY AND VICINITY...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS KY AND ADJACENT
AREAS...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS WEAK ACROSS THIS
REGION...COMBINATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH DRIER MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER PULSE STORMS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
BY MID EVENING.
..GOSS.. 08/18/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
|
