SPC AC 312000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND CNTRL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...
...ERN CO/WRN KS/SW NEB...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A
DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN CO ATTM.
AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60-65 F RANGE EXISTS
ACROSS WRN KS AND FAR NE CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS OF CO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN FAR NE CO
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT AND ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO NW KS
BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
SHEAR PROFILES MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WRN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS THE MCS ORGANIZES THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY ALSO EXPAND SWD WITH TIME AS THE MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS WRN
KS THIS EVENING.
...ERN SC/ERN NC...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND NEAR WILMINGTON NC OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SFC...ELY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN SC AND ERN NC AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM. THIS WILL INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO WITH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING
EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR ERN SC EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN
NC. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE INNER
RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVE FURTHER INLAND.
..BROYLES.. 08/31/2006
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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