SPC AC 181606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 18 2006
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SERN
MS...SWRN AL...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM MIDDLE TN SSWWD INTO
S-CENTRAL LA...WELL EAST OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF
CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN LA/SERN MS INTO WRN/CENTRAL
AL IS ALREADY SUPPORTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S F.
THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITHIN DEEP MOIST
PROFILES...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SOME AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS APPROACH 90F. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S LATE THIS MORNING
INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-3 KM IN WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW BRIEF BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE
EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG. RESULTANT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND HAVE BUMPED SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES AND ADDED LOW-END
SLGT RISK INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT...ISOLATE STRONG OR
BRIEFLY SEVERE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS FROM THE TN
VALLEY NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE MORE LIMITED NWD ALONG THE
FRONT AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/18/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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