SPC AC 261549
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT TUE SEP 26 2006
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING INTO THE N-CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL
CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKEWISE ADVANCE INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING REMAINED RATHER LOW...12Z
SOUNDING AT ABR INDICATED DOWNWARD MIXING DUE TO HEATING THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT THROUGH 16Z WITH DEW POINTS NOW
AROUND 50F OVER ERN SD...WITH THIS TREND LIKELY SPREADING NEWD INTO
THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. EXPECT THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY. THOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. THUS...WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND WITH CAPE-STARVED STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
...CENTRAL FL...
SURFACE FRONT STALLED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. 12Z SOUNDING AT TBW SUGGESTS MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL
BE COMMON...THOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MEAN WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR REMAIN QUITE WEAK. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SURFACE FOCI AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/26/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
|
