SPC AC 261944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE SEP 26 2006
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
MULTIFACETED WIND SHIFT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WHERE DEEP SWLY FLOW
SLOWLY VEERS INTO THE NW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE AS INHIBITION HAS YET
TO BE MINIMIZED SUFFICIENTLY FOR FREE BUOYANCY. IN THE SHORT TERM
IT APPEARS SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION...MOST LIKELY VOID OF
LIGHTNING...WILL REMAIN WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
ND...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD. IF
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR IT SHOULD BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD AID VERTICAL UP/DOWNDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED.
...FL...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ADVANCED EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA AS SEA BREEZE SPREADS TOWARD THE EAST COAST ALONG OLD
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE. DEEP WLY FLOW SUGGESTS FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION MAY BECOME ALIGNED NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE APPEARS
INADEQUATE TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.
..DARROW.. 09/26/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
|
