SPC AC 061349
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 AM CDT FRI OCT 06 2006
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NV AND MUCH OF UT AND
AZ...
CORRECTED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE STRONG AMPLIFICATION TAKING
PLACE OVER CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH JUST OFF W COAST. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OUT OF THE SUBTROPICS INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE UPPER LOW CA COAST IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE E
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH ALONG 130W AND WILL
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
DIGGING TROUGH OVER OH VALLEY INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT
DROPS SWD THRU THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH PROGGED BY NAM/GFS TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS SRN CA
BY 18Z WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AND PVA SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILES OF 50-60KT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED AND RAPID MOVING STORM POTENTIAL.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY WRN AZ NWD
ALONG UT/NV BORDER INTO SRN ID WILL SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACH OF VIGOROUS UPPER SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...SURFACE HEATING PARTICULARLY
WRN AZ/SRN NV EXPECTED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES POSSIBLY TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WRN PORTION OF MOISTURE
PLUME.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON...BOTH AHEAD OF THE STRONG PVA MOVING NEWD FROM SRN CA AND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EXTENDING NWD FROM AZ THRU UT. NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH FAST MOVING
MULTICELLULAR STORMS FROM CENTRAL AZ NWD INTO SRN UT AND SERN NV BY
21Z. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND UPPER
SUPPORT.
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AS THE STRONGLY
FORCED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD ACROSS UT
WITH POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT.
...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COASTS...
COLD FRONT VA/NC BORDER WILL SURGE SWD THRU CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHING OFFSHORE AND INTO SRN GA LATER THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT IN AN AREA OF INCREASING
ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL PLAINS OF CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT AND SHEAR REMAINING W OF
WARM SECTOR THRU THE DAY...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXPECTED NEARER UPPER SYSTEM WITH SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL CENTRAL
NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..HALES/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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