SPC AC 061933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT FRI OCT 06 2006
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN PLATEAU....
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS TO THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
IN ZONE OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...
EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS IS OCCURRING WHERE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALLOWED
FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING. WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS IN
QUESTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...ENVIRONMENT IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF
UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...AIDED BY DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 70+ KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING INTO/THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN LINE...PERHAPS AHEAD.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE MOIST AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
...SOUTHEAST...
FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS
NOW NOSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH THE
FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFFSHORE...INSTABILITY OVER INLAND
AREAS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...SOME
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL ACCOMPANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/ EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
..KERR.. 10/06/2006
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