SPC AC 271556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST ACROSS NRN
1/2 OF FL INTO SERN U.S. COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
SRN STREAM IMPULSE IS LOCATED NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS MORNING...
WHICH WILL LIKEWISE LIFT QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED BOTH NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MID MORNING...WHICH COULD EACH FOCUS AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST ACROSS NRN 1/2 OF FL INTO SERN U.S. COAST...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES NORTH OF MARINE WARM FRONT ACROSS
MOST OF AL...AS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDED NWWD FROM PAM/AQQ PROXIMITY
INTO SERN/E-CENTRAL MS AT 15Z. BOUNDARY DELINEATES RICHER GULF
MOISTURE /I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS AOA 70F/ AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN N-NERN
EDGE OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SFC-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 25 KTS
AND SFC-1/SFC-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST AND INTO THE SERN U.S. LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GULF MOISTURE/COASTAL FRONT TO LIFT N AND NEWD WITH TIME TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND SPREAD A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FL ALONG AND AHEAD OF BROKEN
SQUALL LINE. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC INTO THE SERN
COAST LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT WARM...MOIST ATLANTIC
AIR INTO GA AND CAROLINA COAST BY 09Z...WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG. AS ROBUST MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT...LOW
PROBABILITY RISKS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A TORNADO WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
...SRN MO/NERN AR INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 2164 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON LOW-END
SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW. APPEARS AXIS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL EXTEND NNEWD
INTO THE MID SOUTH...AND UNDER MID LEVEL COLD POCKET THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING INVOF SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL THEREFORE SUSTAIN A
FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THIS EVENING ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/27/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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