SPC AC 301239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST MON OCT 30 2006
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOW OVER AZ/NM AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALLOWING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY RICH. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL AR BY 31/06Z. STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MOIST AXIS THIS
EVENING...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT /CAPE VALUES AOB
500 J/KG/. LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MINIMAL CAPE SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT FORECAST TODAY.
..HART/JEWELL.. 10/30/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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