SPC AC 061254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON NOV 06 2006
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS VERY STRONG ZONAL FLOW AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING FROM
CENTRAL CA NEWD INTO MT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
TROUGH DIVING SWD THROUGH WRN KS AT THIS TIME WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE FEATURES SEEM TO BE WEAK
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DOMINATED MORE BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF STORMS FROM E CENTRAL AND SERN AR SWWD INTO
W CENTRAL LA...THEN WWD ACROSS NRN TX. S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS A POOL
OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WHERE MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000 J/KG OVER
PARTS OF SERN TX TO 2000 J/KG OVER WRN SECTIONS IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM W OF LFK TO AROUND SAT AHEAD OF WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN OK SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE.
...PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SRN LA...
TWO FACETS TO CONSIDER HERE IS THAT AS THE MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SWD
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME S TX NEWD INTO SRN MS/AL TAKING FAVORABLE EXIT REGION
QUADRANT ACROSS SERN TX INTO CENTRAL LA MAINLY TONIGHT. SRN PARTS
OF MAIN LOW LEVEL JET PULLS OUT OF SERN MS THRU MID TN TONIGHT
CREATING A FAVORABLE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SERN TX AND
LA GULF COAST REGION INTO CENTRAL LA. THUS...GIVEN FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS DURING A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION...HAVE KEPT LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BUT...ALSO GIVEN THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...EXTENDED THE AREA
WWD AS FIRST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH REGION EARLY TODAY.
...PARTS OF WESTERN OK INTO N CENTRAL TX...
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ON BACKSIDE OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL TRAVEL
FROM SWRN KS INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MORNING RAOB
DATA FROM DDC SHOWS -20C AT 500 MB AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES VERY NEAR 8C/KM. THUS...AS TEMPERATURES REACH MID 60S TO 70
DEG F...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY COULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 11/06/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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