Nov 8, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 8 16:32:12 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061108 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061108 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061108 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061108 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 081627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST WED NOV 08 2006
   
   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WITH
   WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO THE NERN U.S. BEHIND THIS
   SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
   PROVIDING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. TO THE W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AS
   VORTICITY CENTER MOVES ASHORE LATER TODAY INTO WA/ORE. FINALLY...A
   LOW AMPLITUDE BUT POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT ALONG THE
   U.S./CANADA BORDER BRINGING A SLIM CHANCE OF A THUNDERSHOWER FROM
   NRN MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXIST WITHIN UPPER LOW
   CENTER...WITH -21.1 C AT FFC THIS MORNING AT 500 MB. POCKETS OF
   SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS MAIN SURFACE LOW
   DEEPENS TO THE NE.
   
   ...PACIFIC NW...
   VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AS STRONG 
   TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION. SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SURFACE
   TROUGH COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
   SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE OCEAN AND LIKELY INLAND TO THE W SLOPES OF
   THE CASCADES.
   
   ..JEWELL/MCCARTHY.. 11/08/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z