SPC AC 131953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST MON NOV 13 2006
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE TN VALLEY...
WEAKENING MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY. 18Z
RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ADVECTION OF RESIDUAL ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS INTO MIDDLE TN/NRN AL AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
...TX COAST...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FEW BOUNDARIES LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX COAST AND INTO THE WRN GULF. SRN EXTENT
OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY MAY BE AIDING ONGOING
TSTMS OFFSHORE THE S TX COAST ALONG A COUPLE OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
MEANWHILE...A FRONT SPREADING SWD INTO S TX TO THE UPPER TX COAST
SHOULD STALL BY THIS EVENING ALONG THE MID TX COAST WWD TO NEAR DRT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NE ACROSS E TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
IN THE PLAINS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IN
VICINITY OF COASTAL BOUNDARY AND STALLED FRONT MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD. WARM LAYER AROUND
700 MB SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL THUNDER THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS.
...SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOSED LOW LOCATED 120
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY NNEWD. LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN NE QUADRANT OF
OFFSHORE LOW MAY YIELD ISOLATED THUNDER OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
...PACIFIC NW COAST...
ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ALONG THE N
PACIFIC COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS WITH PASSAGE OF
NEXT IMPULSE IN FAST WLY FLOW.
..PETERS.. 11/13/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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