The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeastern united states this afternoon and tonight... the nws storm prediction center in norman ok is forecasting the development of a few strong tornadoes over portions of the southeastern states this afternoon and tonight. the areas most likely to experience this activity include southern alabama florida panhandle southwestern and coastal georgia coastal south carolina surrounding the moderate risk area...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the central gulf coastal states/tennessee valley ewd to the atlantic coast. a powerful low pressure system over arkansas will shift eastward today. very strong wind profiles and abundant gulf moisture will result in widespread thunderstorms from the central gulf coastal states/tennessee valley eastward to the atlantic coast this afternoon and tonight. the very strong wind profiles and richer gulf moisture will result in a favorable environment for tornadoes...some possibly strong.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 151628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN GA AND SC COASTAL REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO SERN STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... WV IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL AR AND SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN MS THIS EVENING...AS 100 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE NWRN GULF. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE SERN STATES. OCCLUDED 992 MB SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AR SHOULD TRACK AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SERN ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. ...CNTRL GULF CST INTO TN/GA/FL/CAROLINAS... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70F. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 1KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL BE EQUALLY STRONG NORTH OF THIS AREA ...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CERTAINLY SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND EVEN TORNADOES. ANOTHER ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SERN GA AND SC COASTAL AREAS AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING JET MAX AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NW...AN AREA OF LOW-TOPPED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN ERN AR. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE STRONG VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. BROAD ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG/ SEVERE STORMS EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z