SPC AC 240047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST THU NOV 23 2006
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. OROGRAPHY AND HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION BENEATH LEADING EDGE OF
COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING UPPER SYSTEM. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO PIVOT DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT...SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
THE EXIT REGION OF A BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH 30
TO 40 KT 850 MB ONSHORE FLOW...IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING A SCATTERING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INLAND THIS
EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH...AS LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...AND MID-LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM. THIS
MAY BE SLOWEST TO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PUGET SOUND...BUT
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH BY 06Z.
...NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...
THE CLOSED LOW ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS
PROGGED TO TURN MORE TO THE EAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AND...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.
..KERR.. 11/24/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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