The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid atlantic and new england states today.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 011949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NY AND NORTHWEST NJ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...MID-ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY AT MID-AFTN AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SERN CANADA TONIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS WRN NY STATE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO SRN QUE THIS EVENING. A WEAKER SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW MAY BE FORMING ACROSS CNTRL PA AS THE SRN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO SCNTRL/SERN NY THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE WRN NY CYCLONE EWD INTO SRN NH WILL LIKELY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT EXTREME NRN SECTIONS OF NY-VT-NH AND MOST OF MAINE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR THE LONGEST...MITIGATING WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. FARTHER S...A SEGMENTED COLD FRONT EXISTS FROM SWRN NY ACROSS PA INTO THE CAROLINAS. INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS WRN PA HAD WEAKENED...BUT APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH ERN PA INTO SCNTRL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR 70 DEG F RESULTING IN RUC-DERIVED MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. AS THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY AS THEY TRANSLATE INTO ERN PA AND SCNTRL-SERN NY WITH BOWS/LEWPS. 55 KT 1KM FLOW WILL LIKELY BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC...AUGMENTING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHERMORE...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. FARTHER N...REMNANT BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION/SERN NY EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND. SLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT A MARINE ENVIRONMENT NWD INTO MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. BUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TURBULENT TO MAINTAIN A SLGT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/01/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z