SPC AC 240043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST SAT DEC 23 2006
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH TX...
SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS MOVING OFF THE SOUTH
TX COAST AS MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS INTO THE NWRN GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG
BEND REGION OVER NRN MEXICO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
TONIGHT MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM CRP CLEARLY DEPICTS STABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH
BUOYANT PARCELS NOW ROOTED ABOVE 850MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LEVEL OF PARCEL LIFT WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SHOULD REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH DECREASING
UPDRAFT INTENSITY. LATEST THINKING IS ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL...PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAKENING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
...FL...
ALTHOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR
SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING...IT
APPEARS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEPTH OF CONVECTION WILL PROVE HOSTILE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL LIGHTNING TONIGHT.
..DARROW.. 12/24/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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