Jan 1, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 1 17:49:36 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060101 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060101 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 011747
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
   ANB 20 S CSV 20 NNE LEX 25 NW UNI 20 SSW PKB 45 SSE HTS 20 WSW TRI
   25 WSW AVL 15 NNW SPA 30 SSE GSO 20 NNE FAY 25 NNE CRE 25 SSW CHS 35
   SSE AYS 30 NNE AAF 20 WNW PFN 20 ENE CEW 20 SSW ANB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
   DAB 40 W PIE ...CONT... 60 S BVE 40 NNE MOB 25 W SEM 30 SE BNA 45
   NNE BWG 30 NE HUF 35 NE LAF 35 SW TOL 15 NNW CAK 25 NE PIT 10 ENE
   LBE 45 W MRB 30 N SHD 20 SSW SSU 55 SSW BLF 35 NE HKY 30 ESE LYH 40
   W RIC 20 W WAL 35 E WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL
   U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY
   ...CONT... 70 S HUM 25 ENE MEI 20 SSW MSL 45 WSW OWB 25 N SLO 30 N
   ALN 35 SW BRL 35 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MKE 45 NE MTC ...CONT... 40 NNW JHW
   30 SSW ELM EWR 35 SSE ISP.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
   
   ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
   MONDAY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC AND INLAND/EWD ACROSS THE U.S. MAINLAND INTO MIDWEEK.
   POTENT IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE EAST
   TOWARD THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
   SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON LATEST SATELLITE
   IMAGERY APPROACHING 135 W...IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
   SCNTRL CA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
   
   IN THE EAST...DEEP CYCLONE TO START OUT THE PERIOD OVER IL WITH A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WRN PA...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
   OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
   SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL EXIST WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
   SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW/CHANNELED NORTH
   OF THE TN VALLEY WHERE APPALACHIAN ESCARPMENT WILL IMPEDE GREATER
   AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THUS...A SECONDARY
   WARM/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN GA ENEWD TO THE NC
   PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WAVE
   CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
   PRIMARY CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ...OH TO TN VALLEYS...
   AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER IL/IND...EWD TO
   OH...AND THEN SWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. OH VALLEY ACTIVITY NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WHERE STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
   AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL
   BAND OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS AS STRONG DRY SLOT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS OH/KY AND TN
   THROUGH MIDDAY.
   
   HEATING BENEATH THE DRY SLOT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
   AND PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE
   OH RIVER AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY/TN THROUGH EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE
   ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS
   AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THIS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
   CELLULAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITHIN BROAD WARM CONVEYOR
   BELT FROM NRN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
   POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION
   AND LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
   REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
   FORCING WILL OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS
   TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS LONG-LIVED STORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
   
   STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF WARM
   CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE PLUME. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
   BOOST STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM GA TO THE CAROLINAS.
   INTENSE MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT WILL FURTHER AID
   STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONG-TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL NEAR
   THIS FEATURE.
   
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
   PNHDL AND SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL
   JET STREAK AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH SPREAD EAST ACROSS THESE
   AREAS.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN CA...
   NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
   POWERFUL 130-150KT JET CORE SPREADING SEWD FROM CNTRL TO SRN CA.
   WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND LEAD TO LOW
   TOPPED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS. HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER
   IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
   STRONG DYNAMICS AND INTENSE SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
   SEVERE THREAT IS WARRANTED. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IF
   CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z