SPC AC 020603
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST
   ONP 45 WNW OTH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ILM 40 WNW HSE
   20 E NHK NEL 40 SSE ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VEL 10 NE RKS 10 NE
   RWL 15 SE LAR 15 SSE FCL 35 E ALS 10 WSW FMN 10 SSE 4BL 15 E U28
   VEL.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   PORTION OF INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC UPPER JET...NOW NOSING
   THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING/
   BREAKING DOWN INTO AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...PROGRESSIVENESS OF UPPER PATTERN IS SLOWING...BUT MODELS
   STILL INDICATE THAT UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN
   REMNANT BELT OF STRONGER FLOW...WHICH BY TUESDAY WILL EXTEND FROM
   THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN ITS WAKE...ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES AND SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND POTENTIAL
   FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS VERY LOW.
   
   FARTHER UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MORE INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER JET
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN INTO A HIGH
   AMPLITUDE TROUGH....WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING
   INTO THE WESTERN STATES.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...EAST COAST...
   TIMING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW HAS NOT SPREAD EAST
   OF COASTAL AREAS BY 03/12Z...IT SHOULD SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
   
   ...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   OROGRAPHY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG
   COASTAL WASHINGTON/OREGON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS
   MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
   CREST OF BUILDING BROADER SCALE RIDGE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SEEMS
   LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/02/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z