Jan 8, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 8 05:35:35 UTC 2006
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Categorical Graphic
20060108 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060108 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 080534
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 35 N VCT
   35 NNE CLL 20 ENE GGG 25 W LLQ 20 SSW UOX 15 NNE CBM 20 SW 0A8 60 N
   MOB 25 S PIB 30 NW MSY 35 SE 7R4.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH
   VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO
   THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CP AIR
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN STATES SWWD INTO THE
   TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND SERN TX. A SECONDARY UPSTREAM POSITIVELY
   TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   MONDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE
   POST FRONTAL REGION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
   ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE FRONT.
   
   ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SSWLY OVER THE WRN GULF...AND THIS SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND OVER
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S NEAR
   THE COAST. AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE LOW
   CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN PREFRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR. THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY
   FROM THE GULF BY MONDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT
   LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DEEP LAYER LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE. SOME
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY
   AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IF SUFFICIENT
   SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO WEAKEN THE CAP. OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS
   MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT IN
   VICINITY OF FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONGER FLOW
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION.
   THUS ANTICIPATED WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH 4 KM IN WARM
   SECTOR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/08/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z