SPC AC 111730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
   JAN HEZ MLU ELD 25 WNW PBF 30 NNE LIT 10 S POF 20 E CGI 10 S EVV 10
   S BWG 10 NNW TUP 15 NE JAN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE LBX UTS 15 S
   CRS 10 S PRX 35 SSE FLP 10 NNE FAM 10 S BMG 25 E LUK 10 S CRW 20 ENE
   HSS SEM CEW 40 SW AAF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LWR MS/LWR OH VALLEYS....
   
   AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE
   PACIFIC IS ONGOING...AND BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
   NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EVOLVE.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED
   IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY... BEFORE
   CONTINUING TO SHARPEN/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/ LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL PHASING
   WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
   LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE END OF
   THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   WHILE STRONG FORCING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ARE FAIRLY
   CERTAIN...SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
   IS NOT.  MODIFICATION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER
   HAS COMMENCED...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE
   CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
   THE GULF STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOSE
   ITS INFLUENCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND MODELS SUGGEST A
   DEEPENING RETURN FLOW MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
   SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F COULD ADVECT INTO MUCH OF EASTERN
   TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS MID DAY THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...
   THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A WARM/DRY MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU...WHICH WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRONG CAP SEEMS
   LIKELY TO PRECLUDE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
   
   LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER
   PATTERN SHOULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. 
   INITIATION SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
   KENTUCKY...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 13/03-06Z...BUT MORE LIKELY
   THEREAFTER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS...FOR
   MOIST PARCELS BASED ABOVE STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE-BASED LAYER...
   COULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A RISK FOR
   MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AHEAD
   OF EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/11/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z