Jan 14, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 14 16:35:36 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060114 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060114 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 141634
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 10 SW DPG
   10 ENE VEL 20 ESE 4FC 25 SSE PUB 20 SE LVS 25 SSE ABQ 50 SSW GNT 30
   W PRC 35 S LAS 60 NW P38.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD
   WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING INTENSIFYING POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
   OVER THE ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE
   CYCLONE...INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER
   KS WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS.  SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE SWRN
   DESERTS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. 
   
   ...4-CORNERS REGION...
   
   VIGOROUS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IS
   FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN U.S. INTO NRN MEXICO OWING TO
   STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF MEAN TROUGH BASE.  THIS
   MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE
   STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT
   MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION.  THIS WEAK INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
   INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/14/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z