Jan 14, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Jan 14 16:35:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 141634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 10 SW DPG 10 ENE VEL 20 ESE 4FC 25 SSE PUB 20 SE LVS 25 SSE ABQ 50 SSW GNT 30 W PRC 35 S LAS 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING INTENSIFYING POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE...INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER KS WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE SWRN DESERTS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. ...4-CORNERS REGION... VIGOROUS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN U.S. INTO NRN MEXICO OWING TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF MEAN TROUGH BASE. THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |