Feb 12, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Feb 12 05:36:42 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
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SPC AC 120522 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2 AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SWD INTO THE NWRN STATES...RESULTING IN FURTHER RETROGRESSION OF THE WRN RIDGE TOWARD THE ERN PACIFIC WHILE THE ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN/ FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY WILL INDUCE A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OFFSHORE/NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE GULF...WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN/NWRN GULF REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD FL. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INTRUSION OF A CP AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN SHOULD REQUIRE SEVERAL DAYS OF MODIFICATION BEFORE SUFFICIENT NWD MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...A COLD/STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |