SPC AC 241654
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO
   PERIOD AS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A
   RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.  WITHIN THIS REGIME...SRN
   STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER TX AT 25/12Z WILL TRANSLATE
   EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY REACHING SC/GA/NRN FL
   BY 26/12Z.  
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN IT/S WAKE...FRONT WILL PUSH SWD INTO
   THE GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ...SRN LA EWD TO NRN FL...
   
   CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT
   THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF
   SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   THROUGH THE DAY AS WSWLY LLJ MIGRATES EWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  OWING TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THIS ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
   LOW MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY LATE MORNING OVER
   SRN LA WITHIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   60S/ WHERE SBCAPES MAY APPROACH 500-700 J/KG.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
   STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO
   AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF 
   MS/AL/GA AND NRN FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.  RELATIVELY POOR
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A
   MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.  THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES
   WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z