Feb 25, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Feb 25 17:17:34 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
|
|||||
SPC AC 251716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. TO THE W...MEAN RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN OR CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITHIN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 02/25/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |