Feb 25, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 25 17:17:34 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060225 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060225 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 251716
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO
   THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  TO THE W...MEAN RIDGE WILL
   FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE
   PLAINS...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM THE FAR ERN
   PACIFIC ONTO THE W COAST.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE FL
   PENINSULA.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. 
   
   ...SRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE
   FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN OR CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   WITHIN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 65-70
   F.  THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SRN FRINGE OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
   OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WITH MLCAPES
   INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG.  
   
   LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
   OWING TO PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WRN
   ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...RELATIVELY
   STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME
   THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/25/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z