Mar 2, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 2 17:33:36 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060302 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060302 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 021732
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL MEAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
   CONUS...AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING EWD SLOWLY.  HEIGHTS WILL
   FALL ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE
   OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT FROM MT-CO.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
   TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ABOUT 450 NM W OF
   COASTAL CA/ORE BORDER. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 9Z SREFX MEMBERS ARE
   IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MAKING LANDFALL EARLY
   IN PERIOD ALONG CA COAST...THEN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN GREAT
   BASIN TOWARD NRN ROCKIES.
   
   SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SWRN PA THROUGH ARKLATEX
   REGION TO TX TRANS-PECOS REGION -- SHOULD STALL ACROSS SWRN TX
   AND/OR ADJACENT PORTIONS N-CENTRAL MEX...BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY
   NIGHT ALONG ITS WRN END.  IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING...40-55 KT
   SLY LLJ SHOULD SET UP OVERNIGHT FROM SW TX INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS
   ORIGINAL FRONTAL ZONE ABOVE SFC BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...NV/UT...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIME OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROBABILITIES FOR
   STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR OVER ERN NV AND PORTIONS UT DURING
   AFTERNOON...WHEN SFC HEATING/MIXING ENLARGES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
   AND CREATES INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN SUBCLOUD LAYER. 
   MEANWHILE...LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENED BY
   COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL DPVA...RESULTING IN WEAK
   CINH AND CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES 200-500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED
   ETA SOUNDINGS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES --
   WITH 50-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR -- ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM AREAS OF
   LOCALIZED...OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED REDIRECTION OF SFC FLOW.
   
   ...SW TX...
   MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS EXISTS OVER
   THIS REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING.  ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY INITIATION
   POTENTIAL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF RIO GRANDE. 
   INITIATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND IMPROBABLE WITH EWD/NWD EXTENT
   BECAUSE OF WEAKER MOISTURE FARTHER N AND STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS
   LOWER TERRAIN OF S TX. FRONTALLY AIDED BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW
   COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT WINDS AROUND 500 MB INDICATE SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 
   MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS IN BIG BEND AREA SHOW 50-55 KT OF BOTH 0-6 KM
   AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MLCAPES LIMITED TO 500 J/KG OR LESS BY
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR SFC.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES
   REGARDING INITIATION AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE...SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES REMAIN MRGL ATTM.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/02/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z