Mar 2, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Mar 2 17:33:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 021732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL MEAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CONUS...AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING EWD SLOWLY. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM MT-CO. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BE STRONG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ABOUT 450 NM W OF COASTAL CA/ORE BORDER. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 9Z SREFX MEMBERS ARE IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MAKING LANDFALL EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG CA COAST...THEN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD NRN ROCKIES. SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SWRN PA THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION TO TX TRANS-PECOS REGION -- SHOULD STALL ACROSS SWRN TX AND/OR ADJACENT PORTIONS N-CENTRAL MEX...BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG ITS WRN END. IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING...40-55 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD SET UP OVERNIGHT FROM SW TX INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS ORIGINAL FRONTAL ZONE ABOVE SFC BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. ...GREAT BASIN...NV/UT... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIME OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR OVER ERN NV AND PORTIONS UT DURING AFTERNOON...WHEN SFC HEATING/MIXING ENLARGES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND CREATES INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN SUBCLOUD LAYER. MEANWHILE...LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENED BY COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL DPVA...RESULTING IN WEAK CINH AND CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES 200-500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES -- WITH 50-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR -- ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM AREAS OF LOCALIZED...OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED REDIRECTION OF SFC FLOW. ...SW TX... MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS EXISTS OVER THIS REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY INITIATION POTENTIAL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF RIO GRANDE. INITIATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND IMPROBABLE WITH EWD/NWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF WEAKER MOISTURE FARTHER N AND STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF S TX. FRONTALLY AIDED BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT WINDS AROUND 500 MB INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS IN BIG BEND AREA SHOW 50-55 KT OF BOTH 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MLCAPES LIMITED TO 500 J/KG OR LESS BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR SFC. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN MRGL ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 03/02/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |