SPC AC 090658
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. 
   HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS -- ONE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD
   ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THE OTHER MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
   THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS LATE -- WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
   
   A STRONG COLD FRONT -- CORRELATED WITH THE NERN U.S. SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/THE MID
   ATLANTIC REGION.  FURTHER W...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
   OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NEWD ACROSS NEB THROUGH THE
   PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE
   ROCKIES.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH
   OF THESE AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED.
   
   ...FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO ERN NC...
   THOUGH STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT AND SHARPEST PORTION OF COLD FRONT
   SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ONLY MINIMAL ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AT BEST.  THOUGH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
   EXPECTED FURTHER S INTO SC/GA/SRN AL...WEAKER WIND FIELD AND
   PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
   LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA.
   
   BETWEEN THE AREA OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
   STRONGER UVV OVER NEW ENGLAND...A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM EXTREME SRN NEW
   ENGLAND SWD INTO SRN VA/ERN NC.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
   ISOLATED -- PARTICULARLY WITH SWD EXTENT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
   WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. 
   ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY...WITH GENERALLY WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED ATTM BEING THE
   MAIN LIMITING FACTORS. SHOULD SOMEWHAT GREATER AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION OCCUR INTO NJ/THE DELMARVA REGION...SLIGHT RISK AREA
   MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NE OF SURFACE LOW/AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...AND THUS
   EXPECT ANY HAIL TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS DESPITE
   FAVORABLY-STRONG FLOW ALOFT.
   
   ...THE WEST...
   SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST THIS PERIOD -- ALONG
   WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA -- AS LARGE UPPER
   TROUGH RESIDES OVER THIS REGION.  MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
   PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A
   STRONGER/MARGINALLY-SEVERE CELL MAY AFFECT COASTAL SRN CA LATE IN
   THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES SEWD INTO THIS AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/09/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z