SPC AC 131723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN U.S./MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
   
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL HAVE FORCED SFC FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY1 PERIOD WITH SFC
   WIND SHIFT LIKELY NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST BY 12Z TUE MORNING.  GIVEN
   THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED
    ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...IT APPEARS THE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE WLY FLOW
   DEEPENS AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUGGEST PARCELS FEEDING
   THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ROOTED AROUND 950MB
   AND DRIVEN PARTLY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.  MUCAPE WILL LIKELY HOLD
   AOB 500J/KG LIMITING HAIL THREAT...WHILE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS
   SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
   BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
   
   ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA...
   
   NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE WEST
   COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN SHIFT INLAND AS SPEED MAX EJECTS
   EAST ACROSS CNTRL CA INTO NV BY 00Z/15TH.  NORTH OF THIS JET
   AXIS...VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS...H5 THERMAL TROUGH TO MINUS
   32C...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND AID CONVECTIVE THERMALS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...ESPECIALLY IF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. 
   COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HAIL WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS
   BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING
   LARGER THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/13/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z