SPC AC 131730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
   AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
   ...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   NERN U.S FRIDAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE QUICKLY
   ESEWD ACROSS REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING AND
   REACHING OH BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
   BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...REINTENSIFICATION BY
   MID-DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS WV..SWRN
   PA...WRN MD AND WRN VIRGINIA. OTHER STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BEHIND THE FIRST LINEAR MCS AIDED BY
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET.
   
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS QUICKLY DEVELOP
   MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
   MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND
   DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT AS THE FIRST LINE MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
   MORNING. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY MID-DAY...LITTLE OR NO
   CAPPING...INCREASING ASCENT FROM THE WEST AND THE STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY HAVE A TORNADO THREAT...LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE FAVORED THREAT BY MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND BECOME MORE UNDIRECTIONAL. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP-OFF BY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   OH VALLEY FRIDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
   REGION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE IN PLACE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-DAY...STRENGTHENING
   INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS
   TO INITIATE IN IL...IND...ERN IA AND KY SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH
   AN MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
   ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS IL AND SRN IND BY 22Z FRIDAY SHOW SBCAPES
   OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING FEEDING  THE DEVELOPING
   STORM COMPLEX. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE VEERED...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB SUGGESTING
   A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS AN
   MCS EXPANDS AND DRIFTS ESEWD ACROSS OH AND KY INTO THE WRN
   APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY EVENING...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS THE INSTABILITY
   DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/13/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z