SPC AC 171732
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN
   MS/AL...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   
   UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO CNTRL SD AND DEEPEN
   DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER SPEED MAX ADVECTS INTO WRN IA. THIS
   FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS VERIFY THIS WARM LAYER SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS INTO NERN OK UNTIL
   LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  FARTHER NORTH...STRONG WARM ADVECTION
   WILL HOWEVER AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
   THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD
   INTO NRN MO BY MID AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED
   SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SERN TX/LA/AR...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN
   INTO PORTIONS OF MO/ERN KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   DEVELOP...SBCAPE AOA 3000J/KG.
   
   LATEST THINKING IS WARM SECTOR WILL BE SLOW TO CONVECT...BUT WITH
   TIME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM...MOST LIKELY FROM ERN KS INTO CNTRL
   MO AROUND 00Z. A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR...WILL SPREAD ESEWD INTO
   WRN TN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING
   COLD FRONT INTO NERN TX.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD
   AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO ENVIRONMENT WHERE
   RELATIVELY HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ...FL...
   
   PENINSULA SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY WITHIN WNWLY FLOW REGIME TUESDAY.  IF
   THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE ENHANCE WIND SHIFT...A
   FEW MAY ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE.  WILL MONITOR
   THIS REGION FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN
   LOW PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/17/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z