Apr 24, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 24 06:05:36 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060424 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060424 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 240603
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS
   AND TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FLAT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN STATES IS
   EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN WITH STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING
   ACROSS THIS REGION...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MID
   MS-LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN
   CANADA/NERN STATES.  
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM
   IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
   TO THE OZARKS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX AT 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY
   WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DAY 2 AS BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
   THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH FORCES THE FRONT E/SE.  A TRIPLE POINT
   LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER ERN OK BY LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2...WITH
   THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  A SECOND
   SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AND/OR ONGOING MCS
   MAY BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO OR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.  
   
   ...TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO SRN TX...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG/S OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
   FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD THROUGH THE
   TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS TO TX.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST AVAILABLE
   MOISTURE...STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND RESULTANT GREATER INSTABILITY
   ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
   CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY REGION.  THUS...GREATER
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
   
   AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING START OF DAY 2 ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   KS/ERN OK THROUGH MO/OZARKS REGION INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.  SURFACE
   HEATING EAST OF THIS COMPLEX INTO KY/TN AND ALSO SWWD INTO LOWER MS
   VALLEY TO S TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW
   WEAKLY SHEARED STORMS PER NAM ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH FROM SERN TX/LA INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY LATE
   TUESDAY MORNING.  
   
   GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
   FROM TN SWWD INTO AR...WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  STRONGER DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FOUND FARTHER S OVER SRN TX SUPPORTING
   ORGANIZED STORMS...DUE TO BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODERATE
   WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE
   WRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED THREAT.
   
   ...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER EAST OF THE TN
   VALLEY...MODERATE-STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  THIS
   THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH
   THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/24/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z