Apr 24, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon Apr 24 06:05:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 240603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... FLAT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN WITH STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MID MS-LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN CANADA/NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO THE OZARKS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX AT 12Z TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DAY 2 AS BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH FORCES THE FRONT E/SE. A TRIPLE POINT LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER ERN OK BY LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2...WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SECOND SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AND/OR ONGOING MCS MAY BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO OR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. ...TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO SRN TX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG/S OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD THROUGH THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS TO TX. HOWEVER...STRONGEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE...STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND RESULTANT GREATER INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY REGION. THUS...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THESE AREAS. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING START OF DAY 2 ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/ERN OK THROUGH MO/OZARKS REGION INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. SURFACE HEATING EAST OF THIS COMPLEX INTO KY/TN AND ALSO SWWD INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TO S TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAKLY SHEARED STORMS PER NAM ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM SERN TX/LA INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TN SWWD INTO AR...WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FOUND FARTHER S OVER SRN TX SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS...DUE TO BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE WRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED THREAT. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER EAST OF THE TN VALLEY...MODERATE-STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. ..PETERS.. 04/24/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |