SPC AC 060558
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
   AREA INTO THE SERN STATES...
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA/SERN STATES...
   UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM INTO
   SUNDAY.  THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
   THE SRN GRT BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE SERN STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
    
   
   THE SFC FRONT SITUATED FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
   SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK LOW
   SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY...
   THEN TRACK ENEWD INTO THE LWR TN VLY BY EARLY MONDAY.  TO THE EAST
   OF THE LOW...THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NWD AS A WARM
   FRONT INTO CNTRL AL AND CNTRL GA SUNDAY AFTN...BUT LIKELY BE
   REINFORCED BY A WEDGE FRONT ALONG THE FOOT OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. 
   
   
   THERE WILL LIKELY BE WARM ADVECTION DERIVED RAIN/CLOUDS ALONG/N OF
   THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY AND SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY
   SUNDAY.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE WARM SECTOR WILL
   BECOME S OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTN...BUT PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER 60S
   DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME
   UNSTABLE GIVEN MODEST H5-H7 LAPSE RATES.  LITTLE CAP AND FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 IMPULSE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
   FORM SUNDAY AFTN FROM SERN MS/ERN LA NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF
   AL/GA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO SWRN GA ALONG THE
   WARM/WEDGE FRONT.  HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN
   FUTURE OUTLOOKS...ONCE THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY BECOMES CLEARER.
   
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE BENEATH LARGE SCALE
   RIDGING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
   BE MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT...A LOW-AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT
   SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK
   HEATING.  RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MODEST MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN NM
   AND ALONG A LEE-TROUGH NWD INTO WRN NEB.  HEATING...WEAK ASCENT AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE HIGH BASED TSTMS.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL.  ONE OR MORE WEAK MCS/S MAY EVOLVE SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING
   EWD INTO NEB AND PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   FAST NRN STREAM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRY SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EWD
   FROM THE N PAC BASIN EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
   NRN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A NARROW RIBBON OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE ERN DAKS ALONG/EAST OF A LEE
   TROUGH AND BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. AS LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD FROM AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...TSTMS WILL
   DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/06/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z