SPC AC 021732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITH
TIME...WHILE A CLOSED LOW EVOLVES ACROSS PA/THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND VICINITY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN U.S. NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE EWD/NEWD AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
...SOUTHEAST...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE
DAY. NONETHELESS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING SEWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING TROUGH...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS...AND AN
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE COAST.
...NRN PLAINS...
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD BENEATH
LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER/LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY
INHIBIT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS N-S SURFACE FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LARGER-SCALE RIDGE...A FEW STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND PERHAPS SWD ACROSS WRN NEB
TOWARD WRN KS. THOUGH BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND SEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND INTO NEB...STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS
THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE -- AND THUS OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL. FURTHER N INTO THE DAKOTAS...WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR LOCALLY
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL THREAT HOWEVER APPEARS LIMITED ATTM.
...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND VICINITY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE SSEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.
LITTLE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION IS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE...SO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN SCATTERED/GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. A FEW
BRIEFLY MORE VIGOROUS STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL THREAT TO REMAIN LOW UNLESS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP/ACCELERATE
SSEWD WITHIN MODERATE NNWLY MEAN FLOW.
..GOSS.. 06/02/2006
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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