SPC AC 211723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...NEWD TO PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...NEWD ALONG ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ULTIMATELY THEIR INTENSITY...WILL BE MODULATED
BY AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY DAY1
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...MOST IN THE DECAYING STAGES...WILL
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FORCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED DAYTIME
DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST THINKING IS THE GREATEST PROSPECT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
RECOVERY/HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY
REGION...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
30-40KT 6KM SWLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY SHOULD OBTAIN AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CHARACTERISTICS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NY INTO PORTIONS
OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM...SFC FRONT SHOULD DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS
PRESSURES RISE OVER NEB...PARTLY ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT INTO ERN CO...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
FORCE MOISTURE INTO A REGION THAT WILL SEE STRONG SUNSHINE AND RAPID
DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY ROTATE. WEAKENING CAP...BUT
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH MODEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS
OUTLOOK DUE TO THE COMPLEXITIES OF DAY1 CONVECTION...LATER OUTLOOKS
MAY BE ABLE TO DISCERN WITH MORE CERTAINTY REGIONS FOR POTENTIAL
UPGRADES LATER TONIGHT.
..DARROW.. 06/21/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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