SPC AC 130556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND TRAILING SWWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP INTO VERY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST AREAS SWWD TO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...STRONGER FLOW
AND DYNAMICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD QUICKLY
EAST ATOP RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING NEAR THE COLD FRONT
EARLY MONDAY FROM LOWER MI TO IL/MO. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROMOTE THE EWD/SEWD MOTION OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS DURING
THE DAY. PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL TRANSITION FROM LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MI AREAS...TO HIGH CAPE AND
WEAKER SHEAR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THUS...EXPECT A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION IN CHARACTER OF CONVECTION...FROM FAST MOVING LOW-TOPPED
LINE SEGMENTS NORTH...TO MORE MULTICELLULAR SLOWER MOVING STORMS
SOUTH. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR AS THE
FRONT MOVES DEVELOPS INTO THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS.
...SRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
AR WWD TO NM. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. WITH GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL BE LIMITED. BUT SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEPER LIFT MAY BE
PROVIDED BY RESIDUAL MCVS...AS WELL AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD POSE SOME THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...LOWER MS VALLEY TO FL...
PRESENCE OF REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE...STRONG HEATING...AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THESE AREAS. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
MEAGER...BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER FORCING/SHEAR NEAR UPPER LOW OVER FL...COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.
..CARBIN.. 08/13/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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