SPC AC 130521
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN
U.S. AS STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIG SEWD TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN FROM THE NERN PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LOW NOW
OVER SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION. IN THE E...CONTINUED WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER NERN WY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO
WRN OR CNTRL ND WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. LEE TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. MEANWHILE IN THE E...PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW OVER SERN GA WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE SC COAST BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN...AND MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA.
...FL PENINSULA NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS OWING TO
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LIVED...ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. FARTHER TO THE S OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH SWD EXTENT. A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK.
...FOUR-CORNERS REGION...
TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
..MEAD.. 09/13/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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