Sep 17, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 17 17:21:39 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060917 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060917 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 171719
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ON MONDAY AS A NEW TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PAC
   NW COAST.  SEVERAL IMPULSES /INCLUDING REMNANTS OF PAC HRCN LANE/
   WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE LWR
   MS VLY.  SFC FRONT FROM THE GRTLKS TO TX HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED IN
   PARALLEL SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO LIE FROM LK ONT
   SWWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z TUE.
   
   ...UPPER TX COAST NEWD TO THE OH VLY...
   FETCH OF RICH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT FROM THE TROPICAL PAC TO THE TN/OH VLYS THROUGH
   MONDAY.  THUS...CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THE
   LENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.  GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED LIMITED HEATING AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR
   MASS...TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER WEAK.  POCKETS OF
   LOCAL HEATING MAY BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF
   COASTAL AREA...BUT EVEN HERE MLCAPES SHOULD BE AOB 1000 J/KG.
   
   PRIND THAT MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOWS/CONFLUENCE ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY
   NIGHT. MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE RISKS TO ISOLD
   EVENTS.  THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF ISOLD TORNADOES
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS VLY ALONG THE TRACK OF HRCN LANE/S
   MID-LEVEL REFLECTION.  LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS
   FEATURE AND ASSOCD LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.  THIS RESULTS IN A
   STRONGER SFC CYCLONE ALONG THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
   A RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTS SUCH A
   SOLUTION...WILL REFRAIN FROM UPGRADING TO A SLGT RISK ATTM.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/17/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z