Oct 14, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 14 06:01:36 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061014 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20061014 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 140600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN/SERN TX AND SRN LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH SUNDAY. FIRST DISTURBANCE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   THE DAY 2 PERIOD WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
   TOWARD SRN CA. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
   WITH THIS SYSTEM AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THROUGH
   LATE SUNDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
   AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH COMPARED TO NAM-WRF. SREF MEAN APPEARS TO BE
   A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
   SUGGESTS THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM
   THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO NRN MEX AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
   
   A BELT OF INTENSIFYING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEED THE
   SOUTHWEST/NRN MEX TROUGH. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEX
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND NWRN GULF. A SECOND DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
   IS FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES AND LIFT NEWD
   ALONG/NEAR THE TX GULF COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE SWLY
   FLOW. WHILE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO
   LARGE...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS THAT PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION
   AND RESULTANT ASCENT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIR
   MASS ACROSS THE NWRN GULF...AND POSSIBLY INLAND ACROSS THE TX/LA
   COASTAL PLAINS.
   
   ...TX/LA GULF COAST...
   MOISTURE AND MASS TRANSPORT SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH SUNDAY
   ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE A COASTAL/WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP
   INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN INTENSIFYING LOW
   LEVEL SLY FLOW. LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
   APPROACH OF THE SOUTHWEST/NRN MEXICO TROUGH...AND/OR BY LOWER
   AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EJECTING NNEWD FROM MEX. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW TO MID 70S...WEAK CAP...AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE
   TO WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIALLY
   WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT
   GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION INLAND FROM THE GULF.
   HOWEVER...FORECAST MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
   MAY COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVELY LOW CAPE/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   AND LEAD TO SUPERCELLS WITH A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT...EMBEDDED
   WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
   
   ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
   PARTS OF NM AND WRN/CNTRL TX THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
   STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD. WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT
   ACROSS THE REGION BUT RAPID WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INHIBITED
   BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION TO STRONG ASCENT ON THE COOL
   SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS TX...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES NEAR THE UPPER
   TROUGH MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT HAIL FROM A FEW STORMS IN NM.
   
   SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER WEST TX AND
   NEARER THE RIO GRANDE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE
   DRYLINE SHARPENS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH
   TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/14/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z