SPC AC 010551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST TUE OCT 31 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN SPLIT IN A COUPLE OF DISTINCT CYCLONIC
BELTS WHICH NOW ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES. AND
...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO
NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
BROADER SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND SHIFT TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. UPSTREAM...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE WEAK ZONAL
SOUTHERN STREAM LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER.
EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
A LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GENERALLY STABLY STRATIFIED
ENVIRONMENT AND MINIMIZE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY
ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...NEAR SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. OTHER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...BETTER
MOISTURE/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED OFF
MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AND...INITIATION
OF PRIMARY CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WELL OFFSHORE...MAINLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
..KERR.. 11/01/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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