SPC AC 150635
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS
NWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...ERN CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE NERN STATES...
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE DEEP S TO THE MID-OH
VLY THU AFTN...THEN TO THE GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z FRI. A POWERFUL
100+ KT H5 WIND MAX WILL WRAP ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THIS LOW
FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NERN STATES WHILE A SLY LLJ OF 60+ KTS
TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN
THE LWR LEVELS...A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD FROM KY AT 12Z THU...TO
THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z FRI AND TO WEST OF CYYZ AT 12Z FRI.
TRAILING THE LOW...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD WITH AN ASSOCD
BAND OF CONVECTION.
STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE WITH 60S SFC DEW POINTS COMMON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN PA BY THU
MORNING. STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA
WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 750-1000 J/KG WITH ANY LOCALIZED
HEATING. FARTHER N...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS...BUT
100-200 J/KG MUCAPES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SCNTRL/SERN PA. AS STRONG
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...THE
SQUALL LINE WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE ECOAST FROM PA/NJ TO THE ERN CAROLINAS.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY ISOLD DISCRETE CELLS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AT LOCATIONS FARTHER S WITHIN THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY WHERE RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES WILL EXIST. FARTHER N...CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PROBABLY BE
WEAKER AND RESEMBLE A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH AT LEAST
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM NRN PA INTO NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
...MID-UPPER OH VLY INTO CNTRL PA...
A SEPARATE AREA OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE FROM LATE THU
MORNING INTO MID-AFTN ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY TO CNTRL PA.
MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO THIS REGION IN WAKE
OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE
50S. AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS
NEWD...THE COLUMN WILL DESTABILIZE WITH ARCS OF TSTMS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ALONG A SECONDARY TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP
ENEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA THU AFTN AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADOES. GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE JUSTIFIED ATTM.
..RACY.. 11/15/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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