SPC AC 180758
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN AND E CENTRAL TX
   INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
   SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON DAY 2 WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  LATEST NAM/ETA IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH
   PREVIOUS AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EURO/UKMET KEEPING THE TROUGH
   AN OPEN POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE.  LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/DEEPEN ALONG WEAK QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY ON FRIDAY. LOW
   WILL MOVE INTO SERN OK BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
   EXTEND SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   SURFACE RIDGING WILL RELAX IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW OVER SERN
   OK ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP FROM SERN LA TO THE LOW OVER
   SERN OK.  LOW LEVEL JET 40-45 KT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO
   SWRN AR...INCREASING TO 50-60 KT BY MID FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO
   SERN MO.  THIS WILL COUPLE WITH FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 110-120
   KT UPPER JET ENHANCING UVVS ALONG/AHEAD OF BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHORT
   RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL BRING MID 50S DEW POINTS NWD NEAR/AROUND
   THE MO/AR BORDER BY 21/00Z WITH 60 DEG DEW POINTS NWD TO THE AR/LA
   BORDER.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000 J/KG EXPECTED IN FAVORABLE SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT.
   
   CONVECTIVE MODE IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.  MODEL SIGNALS ARE FOR
   SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN TX AND PUSH SEWD INTO SWRN AR/NWRN
   LA FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT...MODELS ALSO INDICATE AT THIS TIME THE
   POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING DISCREET AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT OVER
   AR/MS/LA VICINITY THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED OR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 01/18/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z