Feb 23, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Thu Feb 23 08:31:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 230829 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... WNWLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS A PROGRESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SSEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SE LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN FL IN SRN GA. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |