SPC AC 010732
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
   WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH
   IN THE WEST.  STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM CA/PAC NW
   COAST NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE FRI.  AT THE SFC...FRONT
   THAT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON THU WILL REDEVELOP NWD
   AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN TX AND ERN NM DURING FRI.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX/NM...
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALREADY UNDERWAY LATE THU NIGHT/FRI WILL
   LIKELY BE SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W
   AND N TX/SRN OK.  THESE STORMS MAY REINFORCE THE NW-SE ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/ERN NM THROUGH THE DAY.  TO THE S OF THE
   FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SELY
   FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH.  STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR W TX AND ERN NM
   DURING THE DAY.  GIVEN MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
   ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN AS CINH DECREASES AND
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE DESERT SW.
   
   GIVEN NEARLY 50 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP A VEERING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL
   PROFILE...IF A STORM CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MORNING
   CONVECTION WILL ALTER THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
   PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. BUT...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
   PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE.  IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...LATER
   OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   LATER FRI NIGHT...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   ELEVATED TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. 
   STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM/N TX PNHDL MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/01/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z